{ "generatedAt": "2026-08-28T05:12:06.963Z", "engine": { "package": "@grptom/battery-engine", "version": "0.1.4", "note": "公開シミュレーター（enedock.jp / th-bess-verify）が同梱しているのと同一の tarball。0.1.1・0.1.2・0.1.4 の dist は md5 一致（差分は package.json の version 行のみ）で、結果は版に依存しない" }, "assumptions": { "engine": { "package": "@grptom/battery-engine", "version": "0.1.4", "note": "公開シミュレーター（enedock.jp / th-bess-verify）が同梱しているのと同一の tarball。0.1.1・0.1.2・0.1.4 の dist は md5 一致（差分は package.json の version 行のみ）で、結果は版に依存しない" }, "period": { "years": 15, "note": "事業期間15年・CAPEXは0年目一括・残存価値ゼロ・税引前プロジェクトIRR（借入なし）。補助金・容量市場・三次②・kWh精算・インバランスは含めない" }, "capChange": { "oldCapYenPer30min": 15, "newCapYenPer30min": 10, "products": "複合商品・一次調整力・二次調整力①（二次②・三次①は7.21円据え置き、三次②は上限なし）", "effectiveFrom": "2026-09-01（実需給日）", "capIsNotABidFilter": "上限価格は応札を弾く仕組みではない。EPRX公表資料 ※4「需給調整市場システムでは応札価格が上限価格を超過しているか否かを判定しません。（上限価格を超過した約定については精算手続きにおいて上限価格を適用したうえで料金計算が行われます。）」。したがって収益は min(約定単価, 上限価格) で積み上げる", "source": "電力需給調整力取引所「需給調整市場のΔkW上限価格について」2026-07-30更新（https://www.eprx.or.jp/information/post.php）。19.51円は2024-04-01〜2026-03-13、15.00円は2026-03-14〜2026-08-31、10.00円は2026-09-01〜当面の間" }, "eprx": { "product": "複合商品（一次〜三次①の束ね応札。上限価格改定の対象）", "scenarios": { "central": { "label": "中央前提（応札単価分布ベース）", "note": "蓄電池の複合商品への平均応札単価 8.45円/ΔkW・30分（前日取引化後＝2026-03-14〜04-10、上限15円時代）を2区分で近似。上限10円になると10円超の区分だけが10円に切り下がる（クリップ）", "buckets": [ { "share": 0.15, "priceYenPer30min": 13.5, "label": "10円超（上限付近）" }, { "share": 0.85, "priceYenPer30min": 7.559, "label": "10円以下" } ], "meanOldYenPer30min": 8.45, "source": "資源エネルギー庁「需給調整市場について」2026-05-13 資料8 p.10（電源種別の応札単価〔複合商品〕: 蓄電池 前11.35→後8.45円、応札量 蓄電池7.4／全体125.7 百万ΔkW・h/日）・p.11（複合商品の応札価格分布: 10円までの累積 前95.7%→後91.8%、14円以上の応札に占める蓄電池の構成比 前84.4%→後37.7%）", "caveat": "応札単価は「いくらで札を出したか」であり、実際に受け取る落札単価とは別物。実現単価の代理変数として使っている点は筆者の判断" }, "awardedFy2025": { "label": "落札実績前提（EPRXが公表した蓄電池の実落札単価ベース）", "note": "EPRXが公表した複合商品・蓄電池の月別平均落札単価（2025年度、12か月）をそのまま12区分・等ウェイトで置いたシナリオ。12か月中10か月が10円超", "buckets": [ { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 10.83, "label": "2025-04" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 10.25, "label": "2025-05" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 13.45, "label": "2025-06" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 13.49, "label": "2025-07" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 10.72, "label": "2025-08" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 9.59, "label": "2025-09" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 8.82, "label": "2025-10" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 11.54, "label": "2025-11" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 12.26, "label": "2025-12" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 13.48, "label": "2026-01" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 13.22, "label": "2026-02" }, { "share": 0.08333333333333333, "priceYenPer30min": 10.38, "label": "2026-03" } ], "meanOldYenPer30min": 11.5025, "source": "電力需給調整力取引所「2025年度の取引実績について」2026-06-18 p.46「複合商品 電源種別別の平均落札単価」（蓄電池: 4月10.83／5月10.25／6月13.45／7月13.49／8月10.72／9月9.59／10月8.82／11月11.54／12月12.26／1月13.48／2月13.22／3月10.38 円/ΔkW・30分）", "caveat": "2025年度の大半は上限19.51円（〜2026-03-13）の期間だが、月平均はいずれも15円を下回るため、15円上限では1か月もクリップされない。月平均を分布として使うため月内のばらつきは潰れており、10円クリップの影響はこの計算より大きく出る可能性がある" }, "capPinned": { "label": "上限張り付き前提（感度）", "note": "約定単価＝上限価格で全コマ約定（旧15円→新10円）。それ以外は中央前提と同じ。−33%" } }, "winRate": { "value": 0.9, "note": "筆者の仮定。根拠は ①ΔkW約定は pay-as-bid で電源種別ごとの平均落札単価が火力2.2円〜VPP19.4円と大きく分散していること（EPRX「2025年度の取引実績について」p.46）、②複合商品の不足率が前日取引化後も17.8%と高水準で高値の札にも約定余地が残ること（資料8 p.7。一次は46.3%→36.3%）、③資料8 p.11「上限価格付近での応札は、一部不落となっているものの、引き続き約定することができる状況」。なお市場全体の平均約定単価は2.86円/ΔkW・30分（資料8 p.14）だが、これは安価な火力・揚水を含む加重平均で、蓄電池自身が受け取る単価とは別物" }, "feeYenPer30min": 0.06, "feeSource": "資源エネルギー庁「需給調整市場について」2026-01-23 資料4 p.13（2025年度現在は0.03円/ΔkW・30分。2026年度は0.06円/ΔkW・30分へ引き上げる決定が『なされる予定』とされた段階）。公開前にEPRXの確定単価を要再確認", "allocationShareOfPcs": { "hv": 0.3, "ehv": 0.3, "lv": 0.2 }, "allocationNote": "PCS定格のうち複合商品へ確保する割合（筆者の仮定）。残りをJEPXアービトラージに使う（buildDayPlan の reservedKwForEprx）", "lvMarketAccessNote": "低圧リソースは単独では需給調整市場に応札できず、アグリゲーターが多数のリソースを束ねて応札することを前提に置いた（低圧リソースの参加は2026年度から）。低圧ケースは制度・商流の前提が最も不確実", "lvAggregatorFeeRate": 0.15, "lvAggregatorFeeSource": "筆者の仮定。アグリゲーターの公開情報にみられる10〜15%のうち保守的に上限側を採用。一次資料に基づく数値ではない" }, "jepx": { "dataWindow": { "from": "2026-05-30", "to": "2026-08-28", "days": 91 }, "roundTripEfficiency": 0.9, "socRange": [ 10, 90 ], "maxCyclesPerDay": 1, "maxCyclesNote": "エンジンの「1サイクル」は『計画上のAC充電量の合計 ≤ maxCyclesPerDay × capacityKwh』の意味。SOC 10〜90% 帯の1往復（AC換算 = 0.8×capacity/√η）とは一致せず、実測の日平均AC充電量は定格比0.79〜0.91で、この制約はほぼ拘束していない", "minSpreadRule": "効率込みスプレッドが 託送従量料金+0.5円/kWh を下回るコマは採用しない", "degradationPerYear": 0.01, "degradationScope": "劣化はJEPXアービトラージ収入にのみ適用し、EPRXのΔkW収入は15年定額とした（筆者のモデル選択）。ΔkW供出能力にも同率の劣化を掛けた場合の影響は sensitivities.eprxDegradation に併記", "source": "往復効率90%・SOC 10〜90%（DoD 80%）・容量劣化1%/年はいずれも筆者の設定値（劣化率はメーカー保証水準〔10年で90%〕と整合する範囲）。JEPXスポット実績（9エリア・91日）を日次最適化し×365で年換算" }, "cases": { "hv": { "label": "① 高圧 2MW/8MWh（4h）", "pcsKw": 2000, "capacityKwh": 8000, "capexYenPerKwh": 68000, "capexSource": "資源エネルギー庁「2024年度定置用蓄電システム普及拡大検討会 結果とりまとめ」(2025-03-07) p.25: 2024年度 系統用 蓄電システム価格5.4万円/kWh＋工事費1.4万円/kWh。※6「2024年度における蓄電システム価格は現時点での見積額をもとにした推計結果」", "wheelingBasicYenPerKwMonth": 653.87, "wheelingEnergyYenPerKwh": 1.84, "wheelingSource": "東京電力PG 託送供給等約款（2024-04-01実施）高圧標準接続送電サービス（基本653円87銭/kW・月、電力量1円84銭/kWh。いずれも税込の申請単価）" }, "ehv": { "label": "② 特高 10MW/40MWh（4h）", "pcsKw": 10000, "capacityKwh": 40000, "capexYenPerKwh": 65000, "capexSource": "筆者推計。同とりまとめ p.26 系統用の容量区分別コスト（設備費 6.0/5.7/4.9/5.5、工事費 1.5/1.5/1.1/1.3 万円/kWh）の大規模側をもとに受変電設備分を見込んで6.5万円/kWhに設定。原典に「特高6.5万円/kWh」という数値はない", "wheelingBasicYenPerKwMonth": 423.39, "wheelingEnergyYenPerKwh": 0.91, "wheelingSource": "東京電力PG 託送供給等約款（2024-04-01実施）特別高圧標準接続送電サービス（基本423円39銭/kW・月、電力量91銭/kWh。税込）" }, "lv": { "label": "③ 低圧 50kW/200kWh（個人投資向け）", "pcsKw": 50, "capacityKwh": 200, "capexYenPerKwh": 106000, "capexSource": "筆者推計。同とりまとめ p.18: 2023年度 業務・産業用 設備費9.2万円/kWh＋工事費1.4万円/kWh（推計対象は11案件と限定的である旨の注記あり）。低圧系統用そのものの公表単価ではない", "wheelingBasicYenPerKwMonth": 731.97, "wheelingEnergyYenPerKwh": 4.54, "wheelingSource": "東京電力PG 託送供給等約款（2024-04-01実施）低圧動力標準接続送電サービス 実量契約（基本731円97銭/kW・月、電力量4円54銭/kWh。税込）" } }, "opex": { "omYenPerKwYear": 5000, "omSource": "運転維持費（監視・点検・保険）。筆者の仮定で、4h電池ならCAPEXの約1.8%/年に相当", "generationSideChargeYenPerKwMonth": 87.01, "generationSideChargeSource": "東京電力PG 託送供給等約款の見直し概要（2024-04-01実施）＜発電側課金制度に係る料金＞系統連系受電サービス料金 基本料金 1kW 87円01銭（税込・申請単価）。電力量料金28銭/kWhは逆潮kWh分が対象で、本試算では計上していない", "generationSideChargeNote": "同約款 ※1 により課金対象は「需要側の順潮kWを上回る発電側の逆潮kW分」。充放電が対称な系統用蓄電池では実際の課金対象はゼロに近づき得るが、本試算では保守的にPCS定格の全kWを課金対象と置いた（筆者の仮定）。単価は一般送配電事業者ごとに異なる", "wheelingBasicNote": "託送基本料金は契約電力＝PCS kW として12か月計上", "areaUniformityNote": "託送料金・発電側課金は東京電力PGの水準を9エリアに共通適用した（筆者の簡略化）。実際の単価は一般送配電事業者ごとに1〜2割の差がある" } }, "overall": { "central": { "avgIrrDeltaPt": -1.12, "avgDiffPct": -4.65, "irrDeltaRangePt": { "min": -1.25, "max": -0.84 }, "diffPctRange": { "min": -5.02, "max": -4.09 }, "eprxUnitPriceOldYenPer30min": 8.45, "eprxUnitPriceNewYenPer30min": 7.925 }, "awardedFy2025": { "avgIrrDeltaPt": -3.05, "avgDiffPct": -11.39, "eprxUnitPriceOldYenPer30min": 11.502, "eprxUnitPriceNewYenPer30min": 9.867 }, "capPinned": { "avgIrrDeltaPt": -8.8, "avgRevenueDiffPct": -27.99, "revenueDiffPctRange": { "min": -29.38, "max": -25.78 } }, "sensitivities": { "eprxDegradation": { "note": "EPRXのΔkW収入にもJEPXと同率（1%/年）の劣化を掛けた場合の、中央前提・新上限IRRの変化", "avgIrrDeltaPt": -1.05, "rangePt": { "min": -1.42, "max": -0.85 } } } }, "cases": { "hv": { "label": "① 高圧 2MW/8MWh（4h）", "pcsKw": 2000, "capacityKwh": 8000, "capexYen": 544000000, "opexYen": 27781120, "eprx": { "central": { "old": { "allocatedKw": 600, "effectiveKw": 540, "grossYen": 79945179, "feeYen": 567648, "aggregatorFeeYen": 0, "netYen": 79377531, "realizedYenPer30min": 8.45, "cappedBidShare": 0 }, "new": { "allocatedKw": 600, "effectiveKw": 540, "grossYen": 74978259, "feeYen": 567648, "aggregatorFeeYen": 0, "netYen": 74410611, "realizedYenPer30min": 7.925, "cappedBidShare": 0.15 } }, "awardedFy2025": { "old": { "allocatedKw": 600, "effectiveKw": 540, "grossYen": 108822852, "feeYen": 567648, "aggregatorFeeYen": 0, "netYen": 108255204, "realizedYenPer30min": 11.502, "cappedBidShare": 0 }, "new": { "allocatedKw": 600, "effectiveKw": 540, "grossYen": 93354444, "feeYen": 567648, "aggregatorFeeYen": 0, "netYen": 92786796, "realizedYenPer30min": 9.867, "cappedBidShare": 0.833 } }, "capPinned": { "old": { "allocatedKw": 600, "effectiveKw": 540, "grossYen": 141912000, "feeYen": 567648, "aggregatorFeeYen": 0, "netYen": 141344352, "realizedYenPer30min": 15, "cappedBidShare": 0 }, "new": { "allocatedKw": 600, "effectiveKw": 540, "grossYen": 94608000, "feeYen": 567648, "aggregatorFeeYen": 0, "netYen": 94040352, "realizedYenPer30min": 10, "cappedBidShare": 0 } } }, "areas": { "hokkaido": { "label": "北海道", "jepx": { "annualNetYen": 28917181, "annualChargedKwh": 2531596, "annualDischargedKwh": 2278579 }, "revenueOldYen": 108294712, "revenueNewYen": 103327792, "diffYen": -4966920, "diffPct": -4.59, "netCashflowOldYen": 80513592, "netCashflowNewYen": 75546672, "irrOldPct": 11.82, "irrNewPct": 10.63, "irrDeltaPt": -1.2, "awardedFy2025": { "revenueOldYen": 137172385, "revenueNewYen": 121703977, "diffPct": -11.28, "irrOldPct": 18.29, "irrNewPct": 14.91, "irrDeltaPt": -3.38 }, "capPinned": { "revenueOldYen": 170261533, "revenueNewYen": 122957533, "revenueDiffPct": -27.78, "irrOldPct": 25.11, "irrNewPct": 15.19, "irrDeltaPt": -9.92 }, "sensitivityEprxDegraded": { "irrNewPct": 9.69, "irrDeltaVsBaseNewPt": -0.94 } }, "tohoku": { "label": "東北", "jepx": { "annualNetYen": 29548218, "annualChargedKwh": 2565906, "annualDischargedKwh": 2309463 }, "revenueOldYen": 108925749, "revenueNewYen": 103958829, "diffYen": -4966920, "diffPct": -4.56, "netCashflowOldYen": 81144629, "netCashflowNewYen": 76177709, "irrOldPct": 11.97, "irrNewPct": 10.77, "irrDeltaPt": -1.19, "awardedFy2025": { "revenueOldYen": 137803422, "revenueNewYen": 122335014, "diffPct": -11.22, "irrOldPct": 18.42, "irrNewPct": 15.05, "irrDeltaPt": -3.37 }, "capPinned": { "revenueOldYen": 170892570, "revenueNewYen": 123588570, "revenueDiffPct": -27.68, "irrOldPct": 25.23, "irrNewPct": 15.33, "irrDeltaPt": -9.9 }, "sensitivityEprxDegraded": { "irrNewPct": 9.84, "irrDeltaVsBaseNewPt": -0.93 } }, "tokyo": { "label": "東京", "jepx": { "annualNetYen": 19636366, "annualChargedKwh": 2544940, "annualDischargedKwh": 2290564 }, "revenueOldYen": 99013897, "revenueNewYen": 94046977, "diffYen": -4966920, "diffPct": -5.02, "netCashflowOldYen": 71232777, "netCashflowNewYen": 66265857, "irrOldPct": 9.68, "irrNewPct": 8.43, "irrDeltaPt": -1.25, "awardedFy2025": { "revenueOldYen": 127891570, "revenueNewYen": 112423162, "diffPct": -12.09, "irrOldPct": 16.37, "irrNewPct": 12.89, "irrDeltaPt": -3.48 }, "capPinned": { 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"jepx": { "annualNetYen": 21241191, "annualChargedKwh": 2515648, "annualDischargedKwh": 2264219 }, "revenueOldYen": 100618722, "revenueNewYen": 95651802, "diffYen": -4966920, "diffPct": -4.94, "netCashflowOldYen": 72837602, "netCashflowNewYen": 67870682, "irrOldPct": 10.06, "irrNewPct": 8.82, "irrDeltaPt": -1.24, "awardedFy2025": { "revenueOldYen": 129496395, "revenueNewYen": 114027987, "diffPct": -11.95, "irrOldPct": 16.71, "irrNewPct": 13.25, "irrDeltaPt": -3.46 }, "capPinned": { "revenueOldYen": 162585543, "revenueNewYen": 115281543, "revenueDiffPct": -29.09, "irrOldPct": 23.62, "irrNewPct": 13.54, "irrDeltaPt": -10.08 }, "sensitivityEprxDegraded": { "irrNewPct": 7.78, "irrDeltaVsBaseNewPt": -1.04 } }, "kansai": { "label": "関西", "jepx": { "annualNetYen": 21332204, "annualChargedKwh": 2491201, "annualDischargedKwh": 2242223 }, "revenueOldYen": 100709735, "revenueNewYen": 95742815, "diffYen": -4966920, "diffPct": -4.93, "netCashflowOldYen": 72928615, "netCashflowNewYen": 67961695, 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